P36 By-election — Political Dynamics at play
by Art Harun
The Kuala Terengganu P36 by-election could not have come at a more inopportune time for Barisan Nasional in general and UMNO, as well as Najib Razak in particular. As we all know, the Barisan Nasional is still reeling from the effects of the March 8 general election last year. The main coalition of UMNO, MCA, Gerakan and MIC has seen testing days after that general election with all parties going for each other’s throat on issues close to their respective hearts.
Ketuanan Melayu; teaching of Maths and Science in the English language; marginalisation of the Malaysian citizens of Indian origin; distribution of the economics pie are but some of the issues which saw the BN main component parties shouting and screaming at each other with the obvious goal of championing each party’s racial agenda and interest.
To top it up, these main component parties also have internal issues to be settled. MCA saw a change of top leadership in an election which was more than a little uncivil and divisive resulting in its President and Deputy being elected from two different and opposing camps. As for MIC, it is as good as a dead horse. While Samy Vellu says he wants to re-brand MIC he forgets that re-branding MIC would most certainly involve his removal from the party as he has become synonymous with all that is wrong in MIC itself.
Most importantly is the internal wave of discontent which UMNO is going through since March 8 2008. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has been blamed for everything which has befallen UMNO so far. This blame culture and movement has been led by none other than former UMNO President, Mahathir Mohammad. It took steam sometime in the middle of last year and by the end a power transmission timeline was agreed. Abdullah is expected to quit his Presidency in March this year and handover a weak and fractious UMNO to Najib Razak, the current Deputy President.
But that does not end there. As it is, there are now 3 persons eyeing the Deputy posts come March this year. The 3 VP posts are seeing a fight between 10 stalwarts. The Youth chief is also seeing a massive fight. In fact, UMNO is so full of infightings that it makes the Palestine conflict rather tame in comparison. To add to all these, money politics has reared its ugly head and UMNO leadership is at a loss on how to deal with these really dirty and messy political games.
If the Permatang Pauh by-election sounded the death knell for Abdullah, the P36 by-election is a sure test for Najib Razak’s leadership (although Mahathir Mohamad tried to downplay its significance). And it could not have come at a worse time. The selection of Wan Ahmad Farid as UMNO’s nominee for the election is not without significance. The fact that Wan Ahmad Farid — a known supporter of Abdullah in UMNO and business associate of Patrick Lim and Khairy Jamaluddin - is chosen as UMNO’s nominee is widely seen as proof of Abdullah’s influence in UMNO although Abdullah is supposedly on his way out. Mahathir Mohamad lamented that Wan Ahmad Farid is Abdullah’s proxy, and that he (Wan Ahmad Farid) is not the best man for the job.
Come what may, the obvious loser in all these would be none other than Najib Razak. Firstly, the nomination of Wan Ahmad Farid gives us the impression that Najib Razak is powerless and not strong enough to stop Abdullah from still calling the shots, despite being within 2 months from his retirement. That does not bode well for Najib and his supporters.
Secondly, win or lose, Najib would still lose. It is a lose-lose situation for him. If Wan Ahmad wins the election, the impression would be that his victory is caused by the “Abdullah factor”. Not Najib’s.
In the event of a loss, the world would come crumbling down on Najib. The blame would be on him. Allegations of sabotage would surely surface. However, the stark conclusion in that event would be that Kuala Terengganu (P-36) voters and Malaysians in general would have demonstrated that Najib’s premiership is not welcome. That would be a logical conclusion.
It must be remembered that Najib was entrusted to spearhead UMNO’s and the BN’s election campaign in Permatang Pauh. He failed miserably due mainly to his wrong approach, strategy and tactics. How could you go into someone’s house and tell the owner of that house that his son is a sodomiser? The result of that is for all to see. Anwar won with a large majority (s0me 15,000+ votes). Najib (and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) left Permatang Pauh even before the official announcement of the result with their tails between their two legs!
In the event of a BN loss, P-36 would be seen as an indictment of Najib’s inability and his perceived tainted past (and present). It would also be concluded as an almost unequivocal rejection by Malaysians of his leadership style, his vision and his political posturing on a wide range of issues which are of concern to the ordinary man in the street.
It is therefore quite obvious, that come what may, Najib would be the biggest loser in P-36. Whatever the result of this by-election may be, it is also clear that infighting would continue to ravage the party in the months leading to UMNO General Assembly and beyond. Both the Abdullah and Najib factions would claim victory in the event of a win for Wan Ahmad Farid. And bothwould blame each other in the event of a loss. At the wrong end of this argument would be Najib Razak.
On the side of the fence, a victory for Wan Ahmad Farid, would, on the face of it, indirectly sound a loud “NO” to hudud and PAS’ seeming unwillingness to put that issue to rest. In that event, Pakatan Rakyat would have some soul searching to make. The loose alliance between a motley crew of parties with different ideologies, views and ideas which strike, among others, at the most basic of issues, namely, whether Malaysia should be a secular or an Islamic state, would not, in the long run, work. This issue should be analysed deeply and an acceptable common ground must be found and agreed upon if Pakatan Rakyat is to be seriously considered as the party that will lead our country.
Husam Musa’s statement that PAS would implement hudud duirng his debate with Khairy Jamaluddin shows the emotional, rather than rational, side of Husam and PAS as a whole. Khairy was being clever and he was digging a huge hole in front of Husam when he unnecessarily asked Husam about hudud. Husam did not see that hole and loudly and proudly proclaimed that PAS would implement hudud to a thunderous applause. Husam won the day but in a single stroke Khairy has managed to find a sniper’s bullet which the UMNO-BN can use for the January 17, 2009 by-election.
In the event of a loss, the world would come crumbling down on Najib. The blame would be on him. Allegations of sabotage would surely surface. However, the startlng conclusion in that event would be that the people of Kuala Terengganu and Malaysia in general have demonstrated that Najib’s leadership is not welcome. The people do not want Najib as Malaysia’s next Prime Minister.
In the event of a BN loss, P036 would be seen as an indictment of Najib’s ability and his perceived tainted past (and present). It would be concluded as an almost unequivocal rejection by the people of his leadership style, his visions, his political posturing on a wide range of issues which are close to the people’s heart nowadays.
It is therefore quite obvious, that come what may, Najib would be the biggest loser in P036. Whatever the result of this by-election might be, it is obvious that the UMNO infighting would continue to ravage the party. Both the Abdullah and Najib faction would claim victory in the event of a win for Wan Ahmad Farid. And both would blame each other in the event of a loss. At the wrong end of this argument would be Najib Razak.
On the side of the fence, a victory for Wan Ahmad Farid, would, on the face of it, indirectly sound a loud “NO” to hudud and PAS’ seeming unwillingness to let go of that issue. In that event, Pakatan Rakyat would have some soul searching to make. The loose alliance between a motley crew of parties with different views and ideas which strike, among others, at the most basic of issues, namely, whether Malaysia should be a secular or Islamic state, would not, in the long run, work if such issue is not analysed deeply and an acceptable common ground should be found and agreed upon.
If PAS wins, there may be conclusion made that the people, including the non-Muslims, may not be adverse to hudud. Again, Pakatan Rakyat would have some soul searching to do. And the Barisan Nasional too. Hudud law, and its implementation, is not an easy subject. It touches the nerves of all and sundry, not just the Muslims and the Malays . It involves international perception, international finance and investments and Muslims and non-Muslims alike. It affects the very basic constitutional and administrative structure of Malaysia. It involves the basic premise of Malaysia as a secular state with Islam as its official religion. Contrary to all political posturing by the likes of Mahathir Mohammad, Abdullah and the present UMNO leadership, everybody knows that Malaysia is NOT an Islamic state.
PAS itself is in the middle of a leadership tug of war. It is replete with factions where the Hadi Awang, Nik Aziz and Anwar factors provide endless supply of political entanglement.Ustaz Hadi is the Islamic state chieftain. Tok Guru Nik Aziz heads the more rational and pragmatist group which is known to be sympathetic to Anwar’s reformist agenda.
P036 is thus more than what it seems. It is not only about the Barisan Nasional against the Pakatan Rakyat. It is about the survival of political ideologies within component parties of these two political camps. The voters in P036 should know that their votes will determine the future of Malaysia. They should, therefore, turn up in full force to vote with a clear conscience and make their choice.
Happy voting on January 17, 2009 and make history.
by Art Harun
The Kuala Terengganu P36 by-election could not have come at a more inopportune time for Barisan Nasional in general and UMNO, as well as Najib Razak in particular. As we all know, the Barisan Nasional is still reeling from the effects of the March 8 general election last year. The main coalition of UMNO, MCA, Gerakan and MIC has seen testing days after that general election with all parties going for each other’s throat on issues close to their respective hearts.
Ketuanan Melayu; teaching of Maths and Science in the English language; marginalisation of the Malaysian citizens of Indian origin; distribution of the economics pie are but some of the issues which saw the BN main component parties shouting and screaming at each other with the obvious goal of championing each party’s racial agenda and interest.
To top it up, these main component parties also have internal issues to be settled. MCA saw a change of top leadership in an election which was more than a little uncivil and divisive resulting in its President and Deputy being elected from two different and opposing camps. As for MIC, it is as good as a dead horse. While Samy Vellu says he wants to re-brand MIC he forgets that re-branding MIC would most certainly involve his removal from the party as he has become synonymous with all that is wrong in MIC itself.
Most importantly is the internal wave of discontent which UMNO is going through since March 8 2008. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has been blamed for everything which has befallen UMNO so far. This blame culture and movement has been led by none other than former UMNO President, Mahathir Mohammad. It took steam sometime in the middle of last year and by the end a power transmission timeline was agreed. Abdullah is expected to quit his Presidency in March this year and handover a weak and fractious UMNO to Najib Razak, the current Deputy President.
But that does not end there. As it is, there are now 3 persons eyeing the Deputy posts come March this year. The 3 VP posts are seeing a fight between 10 stalwarts. The Youth chief is also seeing a massive fight. In fact, UMNO is so full of infightings that it makes the Palestine conflict rather tame in comparison. To add to all these, money politics has reared its ugly head and UMNO leadership is at a loss on how to deal with these really dirty and messy political games.
If the Permatang Pauh by-election sounded the death knell for Abdullah, the P36 by-election is a sure test for Najib Razak’s leadership (although Mahathir Mohamad tried to downplay its significance). And it could not have come at a worse time. The selection of Wan Ahmad Farid as UMNO’s nominee for the election is not without significance. The fact that Wan Ahmad Farid — a known supporter of Abdullah in UMNO and business associate of Patrick Lim and Khairy Jamaluddin - is chosen as UMNO’s nominee is widely seen as proof of Abdullah’s influence in UMNO although Abdullah is supposedly on his way out. Mahathir Mohamad lamented that Wan Ahmad Farid is Abdullah’s proxy, and that he (Wan Ahmad Farid) is not the best man for the job.
Come what may, the obvious loser in all these would be none other than Najib Razak. Firstly, the nomination of Wan Ahmad Farid gives us the impression that Najib Razak is powerless and not strong enough to stop Abdullah from still calling the shots, despite being within 2 months from his retirement. That does not bode well for Najib and his supporters.
Secondly, win or lose, Najib would still lose. It is a lose-lose situation for him. If Wan Ahmad wins the election, the impression would be that his victory is caused by the “Abdullah factor”. Not Najib’s.
In the event of a loss, the world would come crumbling down on Najib. The blame would be on him. Allegations of sabotage would surely surface. However, the stark conclusion in that event would be that Kuala Terengganu (P-36) voters and Malaysians in general would have demonstrated that Najib’s premiership is not welcome. That would be a logical conclusion.
It must be remembered that Najib was entrusted to spearhead UMNO’s and the BN’s election campaign in Permatang Pauh. He failed miserably due mainly to his wrong approach, strategy and tactics. How could you go into someone’s house and tell the owner of that house that his son is a sodomiser? The result of that is for all to see. Anwar won with a large majority (s0me 15,000+ votes). Najib (and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) left Permatang Pauh even before the official announcement of the result with their tails between their two legs!
In the event of a BN loss, P-36 would be seen as an indictment of Najib’s inability and his perceived tainted past (and present). It would also be concluded as an almost unequivocal rejection by Malaysians of his leadership style, his vision and his political posturing on a wide range of issues which are of concern to the ordinary man in the street.
It is therefore quite obvious, that come what may, Najib would be the biggest loser in P-36. Whatever the result of this by-election may be, it is also clear that infighting would continue to ravage the party in the months leading to UMNO General Assembly and beyond. Both the Abdullah and Najib factions would claim victory in the event of a win for Wan Ahmad Farid. And bothwould blame each other in the event of a loss. At the wrong end of this argument would be Najib Razak.
On the side of the fence, a victory for Wan Ahmad Farid, would, on the face of it, indirectly sound a loud “NO” to hudud and PAS’ seeming unwillingness to put that issue to rest. In that event, Pakatan Rakyat would have some soul searching to make. The loose alliance between a motley crew of parties with different ideologies, views and ideas which strike, among others, at the most basic of issues, namely, whether Malaysia should be a secular or an Islamic state, would not, in the long run, work. This issue should be analysed deeply and an acceptable common ground must be found and agreed upon if Pakatan Rakyat is to be seriously considered as the party that will lead our country.
Husam Musa’s statement that PAS would implement hudud duirng his debate with Khairy Jamaluddin shows the emotional, rather than rational, side of Husam and PAS as a whole. Khairy was being clever and he was digging a huge hole in front of Husam when he unnecessarily asked Husam about hudud. Husam did not see that hole and loudly and proudly proclaimed that PAS would implement hudud to a thunderous applause. Husam won the day but in a single stroke Khairy has managed to find a sniper’s bullet which the UMNO-BN can use for the January 17, 2009 by-election.
In the event of a loss, the world would come crumbling down on Najib. The blame would be on him. Allegations of sabotage would surely surface. However, the startlng conclusion in that event would be that the people of Kuala Terengganu and Malaysia in general have demonstrated that Najib’s leadership is not welcome. The people do not want Najib as Malaysia’s next Prime Minister.
In the event of a BN loss, P036 would be seen as an indictment of Najib’s ability and his perceived tainted past (and present). It would be concluded as an almost unequivocal rejection by the people of his leadership style, his visions, his political posturing on a wide range of issues which are close to the people’s heart nowadays.
It is therefore quite obvious, that come what may, Najib would be the biggest loser in P036. Whatever the result of this by-election might be, it is obvious that the UMNO infighting would continue to ravage the party. Both the Abdullah and Najib faction would claim victory in the event of a win for Wan Ahmad Farid. And both would blame each other in the event of a loss. At the wrong end of this argument would be Najib Razak.
On the side of the fence, a victory for Wan Ahmad Farid, would, on the face of it, indirectly sound a loud “NO” to hudud and PAS’ seeming unwillingness to let go of that issue. In that event, Pakatan Rakyat would have some soul searching to make. The loose alliance between a motley crew of parties with different views and ideas which strike, among others, at the most basic of issues, namely, whether Malaysia should be a secular or Islamic state, would not, in the long run, work if such issue is not analysed deeply and an acceptable common ground should be found and agreed upon.
If PAS wins, there may be conclusion made that the people, including the non-Muslims, may not be adverse to hudud. Again, Pakatan Rakyat would have some soul searching to do. And the Barisan Nasional too. Hudud law, and its implementation, is not an easy subject. It touches the nerves of all and sundry, not just the Muslims and the Malays . It involves international perception, international finance and investments and Muslims and non-Muslims alike. It affects the very basic constitutional and administrative structure of Malaysia. It involves the basic premise of Malaysia as a secular state with Islam as its official religion. Contrary to all political posturing by the likes of Mahathir Mohammad, Abdullah and the present UMNO leadership, everybody knows that Malaysia is NOT an Islamic state.
PAS itself is in the middle of a leadership tug of war. It is replete with factions where the Hadi Awang, Nik Aziz and Anwar factors provide endless supply of political entanglement.Ustaz Hadi is the Islamic state chieftain. Tok Guru Nik Aziz heads the more rational and pragmatist group which is known to be sympathetic to Anwar’s reformist agenda.
P036 is thus more than what it seems. It is not only about the Barisan Nasional against the Pakatan Rakyat. It is about the survival of political ideologies within component parties of these two political camps. The voters in P036 should know that their votes will determine the future of Malaysia. They should, therefore, turn up in full force to vote with a clear conscience and make their choice.
Happy voting on January 17, 2009 and make history.
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