The Eleventh Hour of P36 KT

KT By-election: Will 916 come true after all?
By PYWong tindakmalaysia.com

If tomorrow, on 17 Jan 2009, UMNO still loses despite the massive cheating and abuse of power, it will prove to the people that UMNO is no longer invincible. Then the people across the whole nation will wake up and BN will lose the next General Elections. Given this situation, UMNO’s hold on the other component parties in the BN will be broken and they will jump the BN ship to join Pakatan Rakyat.

Maybe 916 will come true after all.

This is the last day for campaigning before polling day on 17th Jan 09. The town is over-flowing with Ministers, leaders and supporters from both sides. As I am typing this article in the Mingstar hotel along the busy Jalan Sultan Zainal Abidin, the cars outside are blaring their horns in support of PAS.

The strategies of the two coalitions are clear.

I. BN & UMNO’s Strategies:

A. Pre-election strategy:

1. Pad the Electoral Roll. No time for gerrymandering. Use SPR and National Registration Dept to prepare i/cs for phantom voters, insert them into the electoral rolls, shift known PAS supporters out of the constituency, hide other known PAS supporters from the public rolls to free that vote for phantoms to use later.

2. Adjust or change the i/c nos of voters to confuse election watchers.

SPR had just gazetted a country-wide electoral roll on 28 Nov, 2008. (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftar.aspx). Yet a new roll was specially prepared on 5 Dec, 2008 just for this by-election. (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/semakp36/prayakecil.aspx). This is a remarkable achievement, considering that in 1999, more than 160,000 young voters were disenfranchised because the cut-off date for registration was set 6 months before the General Elections. Mahathir was quite rightly worried that the voters would vote against him.

This tactic was repeated in Mar 2008.

Has the SPR become so efficient overnight?

In their rush, the SPR has been careless. In the new rolls, phantom voters are strewn all over the place. They have even appeared in the house of the Agung’s uncle. There are other instances of suspicious voters with as many as 92 voters in one house. This time, PAS is prepared and is setting a trap for the phantoms. All that is needed is for one phantom to be caught and the scheme will be blown sky-high.

Malvu has done an excellent job analyzing the new rolls and compared it with the previous ones to look for discrepancies. (http://malvu.blogspot.com/2008/12/143-voting-streams-with-uneven-sizes-in.html)

This is UMNO’s ultimate weapon. If despite this advantage, UMNO loses in Kuala Terengganu, UMNO’s hold on the electorate is gone. Likewise UMNO’s hold on the MCA, MIC and Gerakan. If the component parties believe that UMNO cannot give them that advantage in the elections, there is nothing to hold them in the BN. They will leave and that will be the end of BN.

B. Mainstream media:

Blanket the country with UMNO propaganda and demonize Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and PAS.

C. Election Campaign:

Play on the politics of fear, greed and hate – divide-and-rule. These are primordial emotions and have worked for UMNO during the past 50 years.

1. FEAR:

a. Pit the Malays against the Chinese using hate and fear:

In the Malay heartland, tell the Malays that they will lose their special privileges if PAS wins. Promote the idea that if Anwar becomes the Prime Minister, Lim Kit Siang will be the deputy PM. Suggest that PAS and PKR are under the thumb of the DAP. This is such a ridiculous idea when it is obvious to everyone that DAP looks up to Anwar as the leader.

b. Abuse of Govt Machinery:

In official functions with civil servants, tell them to vote for UMNO with the implied threat that their votes can be checked and PAS supporters will be sacked. The KT Mayor was forced to resign as the Returning Officer over this issue.

Similarly, the MCA is going round the Chinese community giving them the same message. The threat is that their business will suffer if they give their support to PAS. Likewise the Temporary Occupation License (TOL) on their houses beside the river bank in Kg Cina will not be renewed. PR countered this by assuring that the ballots are sealed and kept for 6 months before they are destroyed if there is no judicial dispute on the election results.

c. Intimidation:

Bring in 8,000 police to intimidate the locals and to help the phantoms get past the PAS vigilantes.

d. Political Harassment:

DAP operation centre in Kg Cina was forcibly closed. http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/16875/84/

e. National Threat:

Najib told national television on 6 January, 2009 that the government could not afford to lose this election and still manage the country well – lose one by-election and they become paralyzed?

f. Police Harassment:

Use police to harass PR and their supporters: The police tried to stop PR from going round with a large TV mounted on a truck, although they don’t have the authority to interfere with the election campaign.

They refused to issue permits to PR to conduct ceramahs on 2 days – 9th and 10th Jan 09. PR proceeded with their ceramahs nonetheless. A Police cub bit off more than he could chew when he demanded for RPK’s i/c. http://zorro-zorro-unmasked.blogspot.com/2009/01/out-of-sightand-he-harasses-police.html

g. Biased SPR:

SPR told DAP and PKR not to hang up their flags as only PAS was contesting. But UMNO was allowed to do so even though it was BN contesting the elections.

h. Frighten the Chinese voters over the Hudud issue:

PR overcame this by signing an agreement that all 3 parties (DAP, PAS and PKR) have to agree before any policy can be implemented.

i. Character assassination:

Using Ezam to attack Anwar Ibrahim.

2. GREED

.

Bribery:
a. RM 70 million to Class F ContractorsDeputy Prime Minister Najib Razak dished out 583 government contracts (valued between RM30,000 to RM200,000 each) in a “lucky draw” fashion to each and every Class F contractor present at the Wisma Darul Iman in Kuala Terengganu on Jan 10, 2009

b. UMNO Ceramahs:

Offer free food and hampers to audience.

c. Launching of development projects

Federal and State Govt pledges & distribution >RM 12 million to the Chinese community.5 Jan 09, RM 2.7 million: Distribute RM 300 to 9,000 needy & elderly Chinese.13 Jan 09: RM 3.3 million for Bt Kecil Chinese community hall.RM 3 million for KT Chung Hwa Wei Sin (C) school.RM 110,000 for 40 Chinese religious organizations.RM 2.926 million for 10 Chinese schools in Terengganu.RM 205,000 for 2 Chinese temples.

Consider this:

Development is an on-going process. It should be planned and executed progressively, not just during a by-election. This has happened over many by-elections in the past. The behaviour of UMNO all these years is that they believe the nation’s wealth belongs to them to dispense as they wish. And this is reflected in their thinking when speaking to the voters.

Their constant message is:

“Only BN can bring development to their constituency. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.” They forget that the food does not belong to the BN or UMNO. It belongs to the State. Maybe it is time to use the Hudud on that hand.

d. Vote Buying:

Offer between RM 200 to RM 400 for their votes. PR countered by encouraging the voters to take the money but vote for PAS.

e. Resurface the roads:

Overnight, the kampong roads are resurfaced. Such attempts to placate the electorate is so transparent and an insult to the intelligence of the people. Yet UMNO never learns.

II. PAS & PR’s STRATEGIES.

A. Winning Hearts and Minds:

a. Use the soft-sell: Portray as the underdog fighting a cruel and corrupt regime. Speak softly to the voters asking for a chance to serve them. The PAS candidate, Wahid, is a genuinely friendly person and he is winning over the Chinese.

b. Demonstrate Capability:

Bring the MBs from Selangor, Penang and Kelantan to explain how successfully they have governed and helped the people over the past 9 months. This is very successful.

c. Demonstrate Unity:

Show that all the component parties, their campaign workers and even civil societies can work willingly and happily together as a group. This has worked so well that even Lim Kit Siang’s photograph is hung up in the kampong house, something unimaginable just 2 years ago.

d. Religion:

PAS has successfully used religion to fight against UMNO’s attempts to mislead and bribe the Malays.

e. Demonstrate Malay leadership:

All the component parties in PR has clearly shown that the coalition is led by a Malay leadership.

f. Play on Chinese frustration with UMNO:

The Chinese had it with UMNO’s arrogance, bullying and corruption (Pas now wants details of Terengganu's oil royalty payments to be made public. http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/16848/84/) over the past 51 years and are determined to punish UMNO. UMNO’s blandishments are not working. Neither are the MCA’s not-so-subtle threats. This is clearly shown in the empty MCA Operations Centre in Kg Cina and the poor attendance at the BN ceramahs. As a result, MCA is demoralized.

Ceramah dinners held by DAP and PKR are packed with Chinese who pay to attend and donate generously to the campaign fund.

f. The Barisan Bloggers:

Raja Petra is a one-man vote-getting machine. Everywhere he goes, he is recognized and people keep on asking to take photos with him. The bloggers have been blanketing Kg Cina almost daily until the Barisan Rakyat T-shirt has become a fixture. Indications are that 70% of the Chinese will vote PAS.

g. The Anwar Factor:

Anwar is hugely popular leading to packed ceramahs wherever he goes. He sells the big picture, telling the audience: You will determine where the country is headed. The whole country is looking to you for help to free us from UMNO. http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/malaysia/13617-kt-by-election-will-be-test-of-malay-sentiment

h. The Najib Factor:

The people are asked: Do you want Najib (or worse, Rosmah) to be your Prime Minister? Given Najib's perceived association with Altantuya's murder, the allegations of corruption over the Sukoi submarine commissions paid to his friend and adviser, Abdul Razak Baginda, the answer has been a resounding "No!"

i. The Message of Love:

Promote the idea that we are all Malaysians to be treated equally. Anwar's message is: "Anak Melayu, anak saya. Anak Cina, anak saya. Anak India, anak saya. Anak Iban, anak saya. Anak Kadazan, anak saya. For Malaysians to develop in peace and harmony, we need PR to govern the nation."

Herein, lies the danger for UMNO; If tomorrow, on 17 Jan 2009, UMNO still loses despite the massive cheating and abuse of power, it will prove to the people that UMNO is no longer invincible.

Then the people across the whole nation will wake up and BN will lose the next General Elections. Given this situation, UMNO’s hold on the other component parties in the BN will be broken and they will jump the BN ship to join Pakatan Rakyat.

Maybe 916 will come true after all.

Let's pray for tomorrow