Yet another by-election is in the coming with the death of MP Datuk Sulaiman Taha in the constitution of Tenang in Johor and scheduled on 30 January 2011. While speculations are fueling that the general election might be held either in the first quarter or second quarter of 2011, this latest by-election in Tenang may be the deciding factor for Najib to gauge his standing on the outcome of his popularity.
The significant of this by election including its result hold certain prospect to the ruling government.
Should this be a BN victory, which is their stronghold, this will catapult Najib to pursue an earlier general election in the immediate months to ride on this success and what with the recent survey by Merdeka review of his popular ratings still holding forte at 69%.
On the other hand, if a PKR victory emerged, it will make no different to any outcome in parliament neither does it do any major overhaul to the political landscape that it is now. What PKR will get is only a feel good factor knowing they are gaining some slight grounds over BN in terms of popularity, and that is about all we will get.
Even with an additional seat in parliament, the recent suspension of four PKR MP’s including Anwar himself for six months, even with a win in Tenang, will do little or nothing at all to balance any quota in parliament.
Should BN lose the Tenang by-election, he may just delay the general election further until such a time when he is much much more confident of its results favouring BN.
Should we let this be a lost and gain a bigger win later?