You ain't taking over yet

UMNO stubborn staying power
By Ioannis Gatsiounis in Asia Times

KUALA LUMPUR - The opposition coalition's unprecedented electoral gains in Malaysia’s general elections in March, and its leader Anwar Ibrahim’s vow to bring down the government through parliamentary defections have led many to believe that the days of the ruling United Malays National Organization’s (UMNO) oppressive, race-based brand of politics are numbered.

Yet since its stinging electoral setback, where the party lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority but still won the most votes, UMNO has brazenly clung to its old political ways, banning activist groups, jailing dissenters, stoking ethno-nationalism, and failing to tackle corruption within its ranks. Critical websites and opposition politicians contend that UMNO is a senescent party, crumbling under the weight of its own arrogance and myopia.

But UMNO’s reform credentials are not the best indication of whether the long-ruling party can sustain its grip on power. In recent months UMNO has in fact been met with less resistance than one might expect from a nation that is supposedly going through a socio-political paradigm shift towards more democracy and government accountability.

Online media have become a resonant sounding board for the disgruntled and may sway voters at the next general election, as Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi publicly admitted it had to UMNO’s detriment this past March. But in reality calls to resistance have not moved much beyond the Internet, although at least one prominent and critical blogger, Jeff Ooi, was elected to office under an opposition banner.

More broadly, online dissent has not generated a formidable people movement like those seen in neighboring Indonesia and Thailand, which ultimately brought the seemingly indestructible Suharto and Thaksin Shinawatra governments to their knees. There is a growing sense that the typically apolitical public here has become self-satisfied after having voted against the ruling government in March - as if reform is a one-off affair.

This would put the job of reform primarily in the hands of Malaysia's tiny pre-existing activist community and the loose coalition of opposition parties known as Pakatan Rakyat (PR). Activist groups in Malaysia have had only limited success in checking official abuse over the years. And to date the PR has yet to put forth clear and comprehensive reform proposals to match its calls for greater plurality, democracy and competitiveness.

Even if it did, the opposition coalition still has a limited capacity to counter the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, which through its parliamentary simple majority maintains the power to pass and preserve legislation. That sense of weakness was seen in Anwar's so far failed ambition to entice 30 parliamentarians to defect from the BN, which would have allowed him to form a new government. He had earlier vowed to deliver that takeover by September 16 and has since said he is "not in a terrible hurry" to topple the government.

Status quo defender

His takeover dreams may prove even harder to execute now that the embattled Abdullah has agreed to cede power to his deputy Najib Razak by March 2009. Najib recently earned the UMNO presidency uncontested, showing signs that he may have what it takes to unify the fractured party.

UMNO stalwarts may have also felt the need to unify due to fears that an opposition takeover would open the books on the party’s legacy of corruption. Despite low public support due to suspicions that he is a Machiavellian protector of the status quo and his alleged involvement in a number of scandals, most Malaysians have thus far grudgingly accepted Najib’s de facto appointment to the premiership.

Many Malaysians are under the impression that Najib couldn't possibly govern worse than Abdullah and that he might spur a new surge of economic development that would woo lost voters back into the BN fold. There is also a sense among the majority Malays that he is a staunch defender of the race, which could move them to look past some of the controversies that surround his character, including questions about his alleged association with the brutal murder of a Mongolian interpreter in 2006.

Others argue that race-based politics that favor ethnic Malays over minority Chinese and Indians have lost their past cachet, as it becomes clearer to a growing number of Malaysians the practice has stunted economic and social development. UMNO under Najib is likely to test that theory and the veteran politician would be wise to do so. Beneath Malaysians' calls for a more multiracial approach, racial resentments still run deep.

That is, UMNO's race-based approach may not be as moribund as some have supposed. And UMNO has historically played the race card effectively through its firm control of the media, judiciary and finances. To be sure, greater oppositional representation in parliament means that grip is being tested. But as the recent arrests under the Internal Security Act of an opposition politician, journalist and prominent oppositional blogger attest, UMNO-led Malaysia is still under repressive rule.

And it's a nation still very much split along racial lines - more so in fact than any time in recent memory, with ethnic Malays fearing how the multicultural approach now championed by Anwar's People's Justice Party will impact their livelihoods and the other races more loudly objecting to entrenched inequality.

The government's ban on the Hindu Rights Action Force in October was met with very little backlash from the opposition, even though the hardline activist group played a pivotal role in the opposition’s success among ethnic Indian voters in March. An UMNO representative, by contrast, walked away with a mere slap on the wrist after being quoted in the press calling Malaysia’s ethnic-Chinese community power hungry "squatters". See Sinophobia smolders in Malaysia [Oct 1].

UMNO's hunger to maintain power has led the party in recent months to other desperate measures, including, among other things, accusing Anwar of sodomizing one of his former aides. Such antics could cost the party, as many have predicted, or rather demonstrate that UMNO still has the power to get away with such heavy-handedness. Much will depend on whether the opposition and its supporters move past merely proclaiming and through actions demonstrate that the March elections signified an imminent socio-political power shift.

Ioannis Gatsiounis' book on the pivotal events before and following Malaysia's March elections, Beyond the Veneer, was recently published by Monsoon Books.
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